PredictX

Prediction Rules

Effective Date: TBD  |  Version: Draft 0.1

PredictX is a skill-based prediction platform built on virtual tokens. No real money changes hands — token balance is a score, not a financial instrument. This page explains exactly how predictions work: how the pool is priced, how payouts are calculated, how markets resolve, and what happens when something goes wrong.

1. How Pricing Works — Parimutuel Pools

Every prediction market is a parimutuel pool, not a fixed-probability contract. All tokens committed to an outcome go into a shared pool for that market. The displayed probability for each outcome is simply that outcome's share of the total pool, smoothed to avoid wild swings from a single large entry early in a market's life.

This means the probability you see changes as more users commit tokens — it is a live reflection of the crowd's current view, not a price PredictX sets in advance.

2. Placing a Prediction (Entry)

  • Choose a market, choose an outcome, choose how many tokens to commit.
  • Minimum entry: your market's configured minimum, or the platform default if none is set. Ball- and over-level cricket micro-markets have a lower minimum (as low as 1 token) to keep live, fast-moving play accessible.
  • Maximum entry: capped relative to the pool size once a market has meaningful volume, so no single entry can dominate a small pool.
  • Once submitted, your tokens are committed to that outcome's side of the pool and your token balance is debited immediately.
  • Duplicate rapid taps on the same outcome/amount are automatically deduplicated — you will not be charged twice for the same accidental double-submit.

3. Withdrawing an Entry

While a market is still open (has not locked or closed), you may withdraw an active entry at any time. A withdrawal is a full refund — no fee, no penalty — and removes your tokens from the pool entirely, as if the entry had never been placed.

4. Selling an Entry (Pool Exit)

Once a market has locked or closed but has not yet resolved, you may sell an active entry instead of waiting for resolution:

  • Your payout is calculated from the outcome's current probability at the moment you sell: gross payout = tokens committed × current probability.
  • A 2% exit fee is deducted from that gross amount: net payout = gross payout − exit fee.
  • Selling is final — a sold entry cannot be un-sold, and it no longer participates in the market's eventual resolution payout.

5. Market Resolution and Payouts

Every market moves through a fixed lifecycle: Pending → Active → Closed → Resolved (or Cancelled). Resolution happens in one of two ways:

  • Automatic — for markets tied to a live data feed (for example, ball-by-ball cricket events), the platform resolves the market the moment the triggering event is confirmed.
  • Manual — an operator reviews the outcome and resolves the market through the admin dashboard, for markets without an automated feed or where the automated trigger needs human confirmation.

Payout math at resolution:

total pool     = all tokens committed across every outcome
platform fee   = 5% of the total pool — only deducted if the market was contested
                 (more than one outcome received entries); uncontested markets pay 0% fee
net pool       = total pool − platform fee
payout ratio   = net pool ÷ tokens committed to the winning outcome
your payout    = your tokens committed × payout ratio

Entries on the winning outcome are credited a payout; entries on a losing outcome receive nothing further (their tokens were already part of the shared pool). A resolved market's outcome is final and recorded permanently — it is never re-resolved or reversed except through the dispute process below.

6. Cancelled Markets

If a market is cancelled (for example, the underlying event itself is abandoned or voided), every committed entry is fully refunded — no fee, no loss — regardless of which outcome it was on.

7. Disputes

If you believe a market was resolved incorrectly, you may raise a dispute through the app within the window shown on the resolved market. Disputes are reviewed by the platform; if upheld, the resolution is corrected and payouts are adjusted accordingly. Frivolous or repeated unfounded disputes may be restricted.

8. Eliminated Outcomes

In multi-outcome markets (for example, "who wins the tournament"), an outcome may become mathematically eliminated before the market resolves (its team/participant is out of contention). Once an outcome is marked eliminated, no new entries may be placed on it, and it can never become the winning outcome — this protects the pool from resolving to a result that already isn't possible.

9. Daily Limits and Responsible Play

Prediction Rules work together with our Responsible Play Policy — daily token commitment caps, self-exclusion, and session reminders all apply on top of the mechanics described here. See that page for full detail.

10. Questions

For questions about how a specific market resolved or how a payout was calculated, contact support through the app, or email support@thepredictx.com.