HOTTEST YEAR: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record (NASA GISS)?
2,950 tokens vol
4th or lower
37%· ~2.55x· 1,100 tokens
1,100 tokens37% of pool
37%~2.55xper tokenHottest ever (#1)
27%· ~3.50x· 800 tokens
800 tokens27% of pool
27%~3.50xper token2nd hottest
25%· ~3.74x· 750 tokens
750 tokens25% of pool
25%~3.74xper token3rd hottest
10%· ~9.34x· 300 tokens
300 tokens10% of pool
10%~9.34xper token
Market rules
Resolution criteria
Resolves to 2026's rank in the NASA GISS global surface temperature record, per the GISTEMP annual figure published in NASA's annual announcement.
Set by the market when it was created.
4th or lower37%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if 4th or lower is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Hottest ever (#1)27%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Hottest ever (#1) is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
2nd hottest25%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if 2nd hottest is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
3rd hottest10%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if 3rd hottest is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
Resolves to 2026's rank in the NASA GISS global surface temperature record, per the GISTEMP annual figure published in NASA's annual announcement. Predictions close on 19 Oct 2026, 4:20 pm, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "HOTTEST YEAR: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record (NASA GISS)?" close on 19 Oct 2026, 4:20 pm. After that no new predictions are accepted, and the market settles against its stated resolution criteria.
It means the tokens committed to "4th or lower" account for 37% of the pool on "HOTTEST YEAR: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record (NASA GISS)?". It is a live reading of what people predicting on this market collectively expect — not a forecast by PredictX, and not a guarantee. It moves as more predictions are committed, and it can be wrong.
4th or lower 37%, Hottest ever (#1) 27%, 2nd hottest 25%, 3rd hottest 10%. Each figure is that outcome's share of the tokens committed so far, and it changes as people predict. These are a snapshot from when this page was last updated.
11 people have made a prediction on "HOTTEST YEAR: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record (NASA GISS)?". They have committed 2,950 tokens in total. Tokens are free and carry no monetary value.
Choose an outcome on this page, pick how many tokens to commit to it, and confirm. Tokens are free and carry no monetary value. When the market settles, the pool is shared among the people who predicted the correct outcome, in proportion to what they committed.
Frequently asked questions about HOTTEST YEAR: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record (NASA GISS)?.
