Which organisation will hold #1 on the Arena (LMArena) text leaderboard at 23:59 IST on 2026-12-31?
1,700 tokens vol
Google DeepMind
26%· ~3.59x· 450 tokens
450 tokens26% of pool
26%~3.59xper tokenOther
26%· ~3.59x· 450 tokens
450 tokens26% of pool
26%~3.59xper tokenOpenAI
18%· ~5.38x· 300 tokens
300 tokens18% of pool
18%~5.38xper tokenAnthropic
15%· ~6.46x· 250 tokens
250 tokens15% of pool
15%~6.46xper tokenChinese lab (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot, etc.)
15%· ~6.46x· 250 tokens
250 tokens15% of pool
15%~6.46xper tokenxAI
0%· —· 0 tokens
0 tokens0% of pool
0%—per token
Market rules
Resolution criteria
Organisation of the top-ranked model at snapshot (ties → highest listed). Settled from arena.ai/leaderboard (text, default view).
Set by the market when it was created.
Google DeepMind26%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Google DeepMind is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Other26%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Other is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
OpenAI18%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if OpenAI is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Anthropic15%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Anthropic is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Chinese lab (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot, etc.)15%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Chinese lab (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot, etc.) is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
xAI0%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if xAI is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Meta0%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Meta is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
Organisation of the top-ranked model at snapshot (ties → highest listed). Settled from arena.ai/leaderboard (text, default view). Predictions close on 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 am, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "Which organisation will hold #1 on the Arena (LMArena) text leaderboard at 23:59 IST on 2026-12-31?" close on 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 am. After that no new predictions are accepted, and the market settles against its stated resolution criteria.
It means the tokens committed to "Google DeepMind" account for 26% of the pool on "Which organisation will hold #1 on the Arena (LMArena) text leaderboard at 23:59 IST on 2026-12-31?". It is a live reading of what people predicting on this market collectively expect — not a forecast by PredictX, and not a guarantee. It moves as more predictions are committed, and it can be wrong.
Google DeepMind 26%, Other 26%, OpenAI 18%, Anthropic 15%, Chinese lab (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot, etc.) 15%, xAI 0%, and 1 further outcome. Each figure is that outcome's share of the tokens committed so far, and it changes as people predict. These are a snapshot from when this page was last updated.
5 people have made a prediction on "Which organisation will hold #1 on the Arena (LMArena) text leaderboard at 23:59 IST on 2026-12-31?". They have committed 1,700 tokens in total. Tokens are free and carry no monetary value.
Choose an outcome on this page, pick how many tokens to commit to it, and confirm. Tokens are free and carry no monetary value. When the market settles, the pool is shared among the people who predicted the correct outcome, in proportion to what they committed.
Frequently asked questions about Which organisation will hold #1 on the Arena (LMArena) text leaderboard at 23:59 IST on 2026-12-31?.