How often is the crowd right?
The players’ favourite won 54% of the time, across 276 scored settled markets.
Updated . Players only: internal and test accounts are excluded, and a market counts only once at least 5 players have predicted on it. A market’s favourite is the outcome that led on both player tokens and number of players when it settled, counting predictions made while the event was under way. Rates are shown only for rows with at least 5 markets. Full methodology.
Overall
- Markets scored
- 276
- Favourite won
- 150
- Win rate
- 54%
- No clear favourite
- 33
Of 3,567 settled public markets, 276 had enough players, one winning outcome and a single favourite to score. 33 were set aside because no outcome led on both player tokens and number of players.
By how strongly players favoured it
If players are well calibrated, outcomes they back with about 70% of their tokens should win about 70% of the time.
| Favourite’s share | Markets | Favourite won | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 0 | 0 | — |
| 50–60% | 21 | 9 | 43% |
| 60–70% | 54 | 27 | 50% |
| 70–80% | 46 | 22 | 48% |
| 80–90% | 79 | 44 | 56% |
| 90–100% | 76 | 48 | 63% |
By category
| Category | Markets | Favourite won | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cricket | 265 | 144 | 54% |
By competition
| Competition | Markets | Favourite won | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indian Premier League 2026 | 262 | 141 | 54% |
Recently settled
- World Series 2026 winnerPlayers were wrong
Result: Milwaukee Brewers. Players’ favourite: Los Angeles Dodgers, with 70% of the tokens 6 players committed. Settled .
- Who will win the match: Alexander Zverev or Ben Shelton?Players were right
Result: Alexander Zverev. Players’ favourite: Alexander Zverev, with 52% of the tokens 5 players committed. Settled .
- Who will win the 2026 US Open (Men’s Singles)?Players were wrong
Result: Alexander Zverev. Players’ favourite: Carlos Alcaraz, with 71% of the tokens 7 players committed. Settled .
- Who will win the Golden Boot (top scorer) at World Cup 2026?Players were right
Result: Kylian Mbappé. Players’ favourite: Kylian Mbappé, with 86% of the tokens 5 players committed. Settled .
- Who will win the FIFA World Cup 2026?Players were wrong
Result: Spain. Players’ favourite: Argentina, with 56% of the tokens 17 players committed. Settled .
- Who will win the TJBL 2026 U-18 Boys title?Players were wrong
Result: Warangal Stallions. Players’ favourite: Nizam Royals, with 58% of the tokens 16 players committed. Settled .
- Who will win the TJBL 2026 U-15 Boys title?Players were wrong
Result: Vikarabad Mambas. Players’ favourite: Nizam Royals, with 100% of the tokens 11 players committed. Settled .
- Who will win the TJBL 2026 U-18 Girls title?Players were right
Result: Nizam Royals. Players’ favourite: Nizam Royals, with 100% of the tokens 13 players committed. Settled .
- Who will win tonight Hyd Hurricanes vs Nizam Royals?Players were right
Result: Nizam Royals. Players’ favourite: Nizam Royals, with 82% of the tokens 11 players committed. Settled .
- INDO-PAK RIVALRY: Who wins the India vs Pakistan T20 WC clash?Players were right
Result: India - W. Players’ favourite: India - W, with 100% of the tokens 5 players committed. Settled .
- WORLD CUP OPENER: Who starts with a WIN ENG-W vs SL-W?Players were right
Result: England - W. Players’ favourite: England - W, with 100% of the tokens 5 players committed. Settled .
- Will this test ends in 3 days?Players were right
Result: Yes. Players’ favourite: Yes, with 71% of the tokens 5 players committed. Settled .
- Peddi Fever: Will PEDDI cross the 8.0 IMDb mark on Day 1?Players were right
Result: No. Players’ favourite: No, with 69% of the tokens 7 players committed. Settled .
- Will any team score 300+ runs in this IPL season?Players were right
Result: No. Players’ favourite: No, with 90% of the tokens 13 players committed. Settled .
- Will any team be bowled out for under 49 runs this season?Players were right
Result: No. Players’ favourite: No, with 95% of the tokens 10 players committed. Settled .
- SIRAJ'S STRIKE: Will Mohammed Siraj take 2 or more wickets?Players were wrong
Result: No. Players’ favourite: Yes, with 60% of the tokens 5 players committed. Settled .
- RABADA'S RAID: Will K Rabada take 2 or more wickets?Players were wrong
Result: No. Players’ favourite: Yes, with 100% of the tokens 5 players committed. Settled .
- BOUNDARY BATTLE: Which team will score MORE boundaries (4's + 6's) tonight?Players were right
Result: RCB. Players’ favourite: RCB, with 67% of the tokens 7 players committed. Settled .
- DOUBLE 200 MADNESS: Will BOTH teams score 200+ runs tonight?Players were wrong
Result: No. Players’ favourite: Yes, with 66% of the tokens 12 players committed. Settled .
- TOSS ADVANTAGE: Will the toss winner win the match?Players were right
Result: Yes. Players’ favourite: Yes, with 100% of the tokens 7 players committed. Settled .