By PredictX · Updated
One pool, shared by the correct side
In a parimutuel pool, every token committed to a question goes into a single pool. When the question settles, the pool is shared among everyone who chose the correct outcome, in proportion to how many tokens each of them committed. Every correct token receives the same base share, and nobody gets a private price. On PredictX, early predictions and predictions held for most of a market’s life earn a bonus on top of that base share.
PredictX runs every new market as a parimutuel pool.
A worked example
A market has two outcomes. Players commit 6,000 tokens to A and 4,000 tokens to B, so the pool is 10,000 tokens.
A wins. Because both sides had tokens, the pool was contested, and the platform fee of 5% applies: 500 tokens. The remaining 9,500 tokens are shared across the 6,000 tokens on A — 1.58 tokens back for every token committed. A player who committed 100 tokens to A receives 158, before any bonus.
Had B won, the same 9,500 tokens would have been shared across only 4,000 tokens — 2.38 per token, so 100 tokens on B would have returned 238. The less popular correct call earns more, because fewer tokens share the pool.
Uncontested pools
If every token in a pool is on the same outcome and that outcome wins, there was no one to win from. PredictX charges no fee on an uncontested pool, and every correct prediction gets at least its tokens back.
Estimated and final payouts
Before you predict, a market shows an estimated payout based on the current PredictX probability. In a parimutuel pool the final payout depends on the final pool, so the estimate moves as other players predict. The payout is fixed only when the market settles.
Leaving a prediction early
While a market is open you can withdraw a prediction for a full refund of the tokens you committed.
You can also sell a prediction before the market settles. It returns the tokens you committed × your outcome’s current share of all the tokens in the market, less a 2% exit fee. 100 tokens on an outcome holding 60% of the pool sell for 60 tokens, less 1.2, so 58.8 tokens come back. That share is the raw pool share, which can differ from the smoothed PredictX probability.
Where the probability comes from
The PredictX probability on a market is computed from the same pool. On a two-outcome market it is smoothed so that a pool with few tokens stays near 50% rather than swinging on the first prediction; with three or more outcomes it is each outcome’s share of the tokens on outcomes still in contention. The methodology page has the exact calculation.