TOP MODEL: Which AI lab has the top-ranked model on LM Arena at end of Q3 2026?
1,550 tokens vol
Anthropic 🏆
23%· ~4.21x· 350 tokens
350 tokens23% of pool
23%~4.21xper tokenWinnerxAI
23%· ~4.21x· 350 tokens
350 tokens23% of pool
23%~4.21xper tokenClosedGoogle
19%· ~4.91x· 300 tokens
300 tokens19% of pool
19%~4.91xper tokenClosedAny other
19%· ~4.91x· 300 tokens
300 tokens19% of pool
19%~4.91xper tokenClosedOpenAI
16%· ~5.89x· 250 tokens
250 tokens16% of pool
16%~5.89xper tokenClosed
Result
Anthropic
Resolved · manual
What the crowd expected
23% said Anthropic
- Total pool
- 1,550 tokens
- Distributed
- 1,473 tokens
- Payout per token
- 4.21×
- Correct predictions
- 2 of 10
Market rules
Resolution criteria
Resolves to the organisation whose model holds the highest score on the LM Arena text leaderboard as at 30 Sep 2026. "Any other" covers any organisation not listed.
Set by the market when it was created.
Anthropic 🏆23%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Anthropic is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
This is the confirmed result of this prediction.
xAI23%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if xAI is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Google19%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Google is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Any other19%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Any other is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
OpenAI16%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if OpenAI is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
Resolves to the organisation whose model holds the highest score on the LM Arena text leaderboard as at 30 Sep 2026. "Any other" covers any organisation not listed. Predictions close on 29 Sept 2026, 4:20 pm, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "TOP MODEL: Which AI lab has the top-ranked model on LM Arena at end of Q3 2026?" closed on 29 Sept 2026, 4:20 pm. No further predictions were accepted after that, and the market was settled against its stated resolution criteria.
10 people have made a prediction on "TOP MODEL: Which AI lab has the top-ranked model on LM Arena at end of Q3 2026?". They have committed 1,550 tokens in total. Tokens are free and carry no monetary value.
Choose an outcome on this page, pick how many tokens to commit to it, and confirm. Tokens are free and carry no monetary value. When the market settles, the pool is shared among the people who predicted the correct outcome, in proportion to what they committed.
Frequently asked questions about TOP MODEL: Which AI lab has the top-ranked model on LM Arena at end of Q3 2026?.
