What is a prediction game?

A prediction game asks you to commit to what you think will happen in a real event — who wins a match, which film takes an award, who leaves a reality show this week — and scores you when the event settles.

On PredictX the unit you commit is a virtual token. Tokens are free, they carry no monetary value, and they cannot be bought, sold or exchanged for money. A token balance is a score, and the leaderboards rank players on how well they predict.

Every prediction on PredictX is a market: one question and a set of possible outcomes. Where resolution criteria have been written, the market page shows exactly how the question will be settled.

Players commit tokens to the outcome they expect. Every market shows a PredictX probability for each outcome, computed from the tokens committed so far, and it moves as predictions come in. At a stated time the market closes to new predictions.

When the real-world result is known, the market settles. All the tokens committed to the market form one pool, and that pool is shared among the people who predicted the correct outcome.

Because the pool is shared among correct predictions, a correct call that few others made earns a larger share than one everybody made. The reward is for reading an event better than the rest of the pool — not just for being right, but for being right when the pool was not.

That is also why a prediction game is different from an opinion poll. A poll records what people think; a prediction game asks them to commit to it and keeps score of who was right.

Fantasy sports ask you to build a squad and score it on individual player statistics over a match or a season. A prediction game asks one question at a time — including questions about events that are not sport at all — and scores the answer to that question.

It is not a real-money product: nothing is deposited, nothing can be withdrawn for money, and tokens cannot be purchased. It is not a source of tips: PredictX publishes what has been committed to each market, never what it expects to happen. And a PredictX probability is not a forecast — it is a measurement of what has been committed, at a moment in time.