Will WMO's provisional report say 2026 is on track to be the warmest or second-warmest year on record?
2,700 tokens vol· PredictX probability as of
No
51%· ~1.85x· 1,400 tokens
1,400 tokens52% of pool
51%~1.85xper tokenYes
49%· ~1.95x· 1,300 tokens
1,300 tokens48% of pool
49%~1.95xper token
Market rules
Resolution criteria
Report text ranks Jan–Sep/Oct 2026 first or second. Settled from wmo.int press release.
Set by the market when it was created.
No51%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if No is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Yes49%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Yes is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
Report text ranks Jan–Sep/Oct 2026 first or second. Settled from wmo.int press release. Predictions close on 8 Nov 2026, 12:00 am IST, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "Will WMO's provisional report say 2026 is on track to be the warmest or second-warmest year on record?" close on 8 Nov 2026, 12:00 am IST. After that no new predictions are accepted, and the market settles once the result is known.
No 51%, Yes 49%, as of 3 Nov 2026, 6:28 pm IST. These are PredictX probabilities, computed from the tokens committed to each side, smoothed so that a thin pool stays close to 50%. They change as predictions are committed, and they are not a forecast by PredictX or a guarantee.
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Frequently asked questions about Will WMO's provisional report say 2026 is on track to be the warmest or second-warmest year on record?.