HOTTEST YEAR: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record (NASA GISS)?
2,950 tokens vol· PredictX probability as of
4th or lower
37%· ~2.55x· 1,100 tokens
1,100 tokens37% of pool
37%~2.55xper tokenHottest ever (#1)
27%· ~3.50x· 800 tokens
800 tokens27% of pool
27%~3.50xper token2nd hottest
25%· ~3.74x· 750 tokens
750 tokens25% of pool
25%~3.74xper token3rd hottest
10%· ~9.34x· 300 tokens
300 tokens10% of pool
10%~9.34xper token
Market rules
Resolution criteria
Resolves to 2026's rank in the NASA GISS global surface temperature record, per the GISTEMP annual figure published in NASA's annual announcement.
Set by the market when it was created.
4th or lower37%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if 4th or lower is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Hottest ever (#1)27%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Hottest ever (#1) is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
2nd hottest25%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if 2nd hottest is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
3rd hottest10%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if 3rd hottest is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
Resolves to 2026's rank in the NASA GISS global surface temperature record, per the GISTEMP annual figure published in NASA's annual announcement. Predictions close on 1 Feb 2027, 4:20 pm IST, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "HOTTEST YEAR: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record (NASA GISS)?" close on 1 Feb 2027, 4:20 pm IST. After that no new predictions are accepted, and the market settles once the result is known.
4th or lower 37%, Hottest ever (#1) 27%, 2nd hottest 25%, 3rd hottest 10%, as of 3 Nov 2026, 5:44 pm IST. These are PredictX probabilities, computed from each outcome’s share of the tokens committed to outcomes still in contention. They change as predictions are committed, and they are not a forecast by PredictX or a guarantee.
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Frequently asked questions about HOTTEST YEAR: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record (NASA GISS)?.