Will Anthropic announce a new Claude model between 2026-10-18 and 2026-12-31?
4,500 tokens vol· PredictX probability as of
No
55%· ~1.74x· 2,500 tokens
2,500 tokens56% of pool
55%~1.74xper tokenYes
45%· ~2.09x· 2,000 tokens
2,000 tokens44% of pool
45%~2.09xper token
Market rules
Resolution criteria
A new model (new name or version), not a feature update. Settled from anthropic.com/news.
Set by the market when it was created.
No55%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if No is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Yes45%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Yes is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
A new model (new name or version), not a feature update. Settled from anthropic.com/news. Predictions close on 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 am IST, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "Will Anthropic announce a new Claude model between 2026-10-18 and 2026-12-31?" close on 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 am IST. After that no new predictions are accepted, and the market settles once the result is known.
No 55%, Yes 45%, as of 3 Nov 2026, 5:44 pm IST. These are PredictX probabilities, computed from the tokens committed to each side, smoothed so that a thin pool stays close to 50%. They change as predictions are committed, and they are not a forecast by PredictX or a guarantee.
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Frequently asked questions about Will Anthropic announce a new Claude model between 2026-10-18 and 2026-12-31?.