Will 2026's global mean temperature exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial per Copernicus (as 2024 did)?
900 tokens vol· PredictX probability as of
No
53%· ~1.81x· 500 tokens
500 tokens56% of pool
53%~1.81xper tokenYes
47%· ~2.01x· 400 tokens
400 tokens44% of pool
47%~2.01xper token
Market rules
Resolution criteria
Stated 2026 anomaly vs 1850–1900 > 1.50 °C. Settled from climate.copernicus.eu Global Climate Highlights 2026.
Set by the market when it was created.
No53%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if No is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Yes47%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Yes is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
Stated 2026 anomaly vs 1850–1900 > 1.50 °C. Settled from climate.copernicus.eu Global Climate Highlights 2026. Predictions close on 15 Dec 2026, 12:00 am IST, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "Will 2026's global mean temperature exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial per Copernicus (as 2024 did)?" close on 15 Dec 2026, 12:00 am IST. After that no new predictions are accepted, and the market settles once the result is known.
No 53%, Yes 47%, as of 3 Nov 2026, 6:26 pm IST. These are PredictX probabilities, computed from the tokens committed to each side, smoothed so that a thin pool stays close to 50%. They change as predictions are committed, and they are not a forecast by PredictX or a guarantee.
New to PredictX? How predicting works · How PredictX probabilities and player figures are calculated
Frequently asked questions about Will 2026's global mean temperature exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial per Copernicus (as 2024 did)?.