Will Meta release an open-weights model of 70B parameters or more between 2026-10-18 and 2026-12-31?
4,200 tokens vol· PredictX probability as of
No
54%· ~1.76x· 2,300 tokens
2,300 tokens55% of pool
54%~1.76xper tokenYes
46%· ~2.06x· 1,900 tokens
1,900 tokens45% of pool
46%~2.06xper token
Market rules
Resolution criteria
Downloadable weights published under any licence. Settled from ai.meta.com / Hugging Face official Meta org.
Set by the market when it was created.
No54%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if No is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Yes46%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Yes is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
Downloadable weights published under any licence. Settled from ai.meta.com / Hugging Face official Meta org. Predictions close on 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 am IST, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "Will Meta release an open-weights model of 70B parameters or more between 2026-10-18 and 2026-12-31?" close on 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 am IST. After that no new predictions are accepted, and the market settles once the result is known.
No 54%, Yes 46%, as of 3 Nov 2026, 6:26 pm IST. These are PredictX probabilities, computed from the tokens committed to each side, smoothed so that a thin pool stays close to 50%. They change as predictions are committed, and they are not a forecast by PredictX or a guarantee.
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Frequently asked questions about Will Meta release an open-weights model of 70B parameters or more between 2026-10-18 and 2026-12-31?.