Which organisation will hold #1 on the Arena (LMArena) text leaderboard at 23:59 IST on 2026-12-31?
1,700 tokens vol· PredictX probability as of
Google DeepMind
26%· ~3.59x· 450 tokens
450 tokens26% of pool
26%~3.59xper tokenOther
26%· ~3.59x· 450 tokens
450 tokens26% of pool
26%~3.59xper tokenOpenAI
18%· ~5.38x· 300 tokens
300 tokens18% of pool
18%~5.38xper tokenAnthropic
15%· ~6.46x· 250 tokens
250 tokens15% of pool
15%~6.46xper tokenChinese lab (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot, etc.)
15%· ~6.46x· 250 tokens
250 tokens15% of pool
15%~6.46xper tokenxAI
0%· —· 0 tokens
0 tokens0% of pool
0%—per token
Market rules
Resolution criteria
Organisation of the top-ranked model at snapshot (ties → highest listed). Settled from arena.ai/leaderboard (text, default view).
Set by the market when it was created.
Google DeepMind26%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Google DeepMind is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Other26%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Other is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
OpenAI18%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if OpenAI is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Anthropic15%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Anthropic is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Chinese lab (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot, etc.)15%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Chinese lab (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot, etc.) is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
xAI0%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if xAI is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Meta0%
What this outcome means
Resolves YES if Meta is the confirmed outcome of this prediction when it closes.
Verified by PredictX review against the official result for this event.
Note: outcomes here are mutually exclusive — exactly one resolves YES and the pool is shared between everyone who committed tokens to it.
Frequently asked questions
Organisation of the top-ranked model at snapshot (ties → highest listed). Settled from arena.ai/leaderboard (text, default view). Predictions close on 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 am IST, and the market settles once the result is known.
Predictions on "Which organisation will hold #1 on the Arena (LMArena) text leaderboard at 23:59 IST on 2026-12-31?" close on 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 am IST. After that no new predictions are accepted, and the market settles once the result is known.
Google DeepMind 26%, Other 26%, OpenAI 18%, Anthropic 15%, Chinese lab (DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot, etc.) 15%, xAI 0%, and 1 further outcome, as of 3 Nov 2026, 5:46 pm IST. These are PredictX probabilities, computed from each outcome’s share of the tokens committed to outcomes still in contention. They change as predictions are committed, and they are not a forecast by PredictX or a guarantee.
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Frequently asked questions about Which organisation will hold #1 on the Arena (LMArena) text leaderboard at 23:59 IST on 2026-12-31?.